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  • 11 January 2017

    At the end of 2016, the OECD published 100th edition of global economic review - Economic Outlook. This document contains variety of forecasts about 2017 outcomes and recommendations on strengthening the development of global economy.

    Besides the overall assessment of the world’s economic condition, Economic Outlook includes also individual reviews of each of the member country. In case of Poland, the OECD is foreseeing strengthening of GDP growth to around 3% annually in upcoming years 2017-18, thanks to higher social transfers and rising disbursement of EU funds. Increasing disposable income and consumption, the switchover to the new budgetary period for EU funds should lead to an acceleration in investments. Stronger aggregate demand is expected to underpin an appearance of modest inflation. Simultaneously with the price increase, OECD predicts that towards the end of 2017, the National Bank of Poland will start increasing interest rates.


    The Organization is supporting the Polish government in its efforts to increase tax compliance and suggests scaling down tax exemptions and special VAT rates. The OECD indicates that lowering retirement age would decrease potential growth and public revenues, which are already strained by ageing population. By 2017, interests payments on public debt will fall by about 1% of GDP since 2012, and this increase in “fiscal space” will be partly used for social transfers. However, the Organization stresses that the available fiscal room should, instead of social transfers, be used for infrastructural public investments that might bring more benefits for Polish economy, e.g. help strengthen productivity growth.


    Generally speaking, it seems that the upcoming year will not bring any breakout: fast growth in world’s economy is rather unlikely, but an expansive fiscal policy of states such as USA, Canada or Japan may help to return on the track of rapid growth. In comparison to other countries, Poland is characterized by stable and relatively high GDP growth and the forecasts for next years indicate that Polish development is based on solid foundation.



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    Source: OECD November 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD November 2016 Economic Outlook Special Chapter, “Using fiscal levers to escape the low growth trap”; OECD Economic Outlook 100 database and GUS Macroeconomic Database

    Tags: OECD

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